In fact, I’m starting to think predicting this league should come with a health warning!
The three sides who started the weekend with 100% records have all remained unbeaten, but they’ve done it in very different ways.
Plymouth and Sale continue to look extremely impressive, while Tonbridge Juddians somehow keep finding a way to win.
Behind them, though, things are becoming really interesting.
Leeds have finally got their first victory — and what a victory it was.
Camborne have now won away at both Leeds and Rosslyn Park.
Birmingham Moseley have two wins from three after I had them bottom of the league in pre-season.
And Rams, who I had down to finish third, are still waiting for their first victory.
Then, of course, there was the small matter of Tonbridge Juddians 53–52 Cambridge!
So let’s go through all seven games.
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LEEDS TYKES 57–10 LONDON SCOTTISH
Leeds finally get off the mark — in style
After two narrow defeats, Leeds desperately needed a win.
I don’t think many people expected them to produce a result quite like this.
57–10.
And against a London Scottish side who had started the season by scoring 91 points in their opening two matches.
Scottish had opened with that impressive 53–27 victory at Bury before suffering a one-point defeat to Tonbridge Juddians, 39–38.
So although they had lost that second game, they had still looked extremely dangerous going forward. (National League Rugby)
Leeds simply blew them away.
This is particularly interesting because Leeds had already been competitive in their first two games. They lost 38–36 to Camborne and then 19–12 at Sheffield, collecting bonus points from both defeats.
They hadn’t looked like a side that was miles away from winning.
They’ve now shown what they can do when things click.
For Scottish, though, this is a very strange result.
After scoring 53 and 38 in their first two games, to be restricted to just ten points is a massive drop-off.
What it means
Leeds: A huge confidence boost and their first win of the season. Their two opening defeats now look even more like missed opportunities rather than evidence that they would struggle.
London Scottish: A very disappointing afternoon. They need to respond quickly, because their opening two performances suggested they were capable of challenging near the top.
And I’m certainly going to be watching Leeds much more closely from now on!
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BIRMINGHAM MOSELEY 35–31 DINGS CRUSADERS
Moseley continue to surprise
I think I’m going to have to apologise to Birmingham Moseley!
I had them 14th in my pre-season prediction.
They’ve now won two of their first three games.
After beating Cambridge in Week 1, they were heavily beaten 66–35 by Sale last weekend, but this was an important response.
They beat Dings 35–31 in a game that was close enough right to the end.
That’s the sort of result that can tell you quite a lot about a team.
It’s easy to look good when you’re putting 60-plus points on someone.
Winning the tight ones is something else.
Moseley have now shown that they can do both.
They can score plenty of points, but they can also grind out a four-point victory when things aren’t going their way.
For Dings, this is another frustrating afternoon.
They drew 24–24 with Rams last week and now they’ve lost by four points.
They’re clearly competitive.
They just need to start turning those competitive performances into victories.
What it means
Moseley: Two wins from three is a terrific start, and already makes my pre-season prediction look rather foolish!
Dings: Plenty of evidence that they can compete at this level, but they desperately need that first win.
As things stand, Moseley are one of the biggest surprises of the opening three weeks.
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BURY ST EDMUNDS 15–45 SALE FC
Sale just keep rolling
I’m running out of different ways to describe Sale!
They’ve now won all three matches and scored:
50, 66 and 45.
That’s 161 points in three games.
And they haven’t been beating weak opposition either.
They put 50 on Rams, 66 on Moseley and now 45 on Bury.
The 45–15 scoreline tells you that this wasn’t really in doubt.
Bury had gone into this one full of confidence after their excellent comeback victory at Cambridge last weekend. They were 26–17 behind at half-time before scoring three tries in nine minutes to turn the game around and win 38–31. (National League Rugby)
Sale were a completely different proposition.
This is now starting to look like more than simply a good start.
Sale are producing serious attacking numbers and, perhaps more importantly, they’re doing it consistently.
I had them down to finish fifth in my original prediction and subsequently moved them into the top five discussion.
I’m now thinking that may have been a little conservative!
What it means
Bury: A difficult afternoon against a side currently playing at a very high level. They shouldn’t let this result erase the positives from their opening two games.
Sale: Three from three, huge points totals and looking like genuine title contenders.
At the moment, Sale are making an awful lot of people rethink their pre-season predictions.
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PLYMOUTH ALBION 47–5 SHEFFIELD
Plymouth keep doing Plymouth things
Another week.
Another five points.
Another huge score.
Another statement from Plymouth.
47–5 against Sheffield.
That’s three wins from three.
And it’s worth remembering that Sheffield had already beaten Leeds and looked very competitive in their first two games. They weren’t coming down to Plymouth simply to make up the numbers.
Plymouth were just too good.
The interesting thing for me was how they coped without Iwan Jenkins, who was taken off during the victory at Camborne and was expected to be absent for a couple of weeks.
Jenkins has been such an important part of Plymouth’s attacking and kicking game, so it was certainly going to be interesting to see how his absence affected the dynamic of the team.
The answer seems to be:
Not very much!
Plymouth are now three from three and have scored 140 points in those three matches.
That’s some start.
The pre-season prediction of Plymouth as one of the title favourites is looking pretty sensible at the moment.
For Sheffield, this is simply one of those days you have to put behind you.
They’ve already shown that they’re capable of competing in this division.
This was just a very different level of challenge.
What it means
Plymouth: Three wins, huge attacking numbers and still looking every inch a title contender.
Sheffield: A harsh afternoon, but I wouldn’t read too much into one defeat against Plymouth.
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RAMS 31–34 BISHOP’S STORTFORD
Rams still waiting for that first win
This is probably the result that will concern Rams supporters most.
I had Rams down to finish third in my pre-season prediction.
After three games, they haven’t won one.
They drew 24–24 with Dings last weekend and have now lost 34–31 at home to Bishop’s Stortford.
And yet I’m still reluctant to write them off.
Why?
Because three games is nowhere near enough to judge a team over a 26-game season.
But there is no escaping the fact that this is a disappointing start.
Stortford, on the other hand, deserve enormous credit.
They were hammered 61–30 by Rosslyn Park last week after conceding 42 points in the first half.
To respond by going to Rams and winning 34–31 shows plenty of character.
That’s the sort of response you want from a side that has ambitions of being competitive in the top half.
What it means
Rams: Three games without a win is not what I expected, and they’ll need to start turning these close games into victories.
Bishop’s Stortford: A really good away win and a superb response to last week’s heavy defeat.
My pre-season sixth-place prediction for Stortford is looking increasingly reasonable.
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ROSSLYN PARK 26–40 CAMBORNE
Camborne are becoming very interesting indeed
Now this is a result I really like from Camborne’s point of view.
They lost to Plymouth last week.
Fair enough.
But then they travelled to Rosslyn Park and won 40–26.
Remember, this is the same Camborne side that opened the season by beating Leeds 38–36 away from home.
So they’ve now won away at:
Leeds
and
Rosslyn Park
Their only defeat has come against Plymouth.
That’s an excellent start to life in National One.
I was originally guilty of having Camborne too low in my pre-season prediction before revising them upwards.
I’m now even happier with that decision.
They aren’t simply surviving.
They’re going away from home and beating established National One sides.
For Rosslyn Park, this is a frustrating result.
They had responded brilliantly to their opening-day 61–17 defeat at Plymouth by hammering Bishop’s Stortford 61–30.
Then they lose at home to Camborne.
That’s the inconsistency they’ll need to eliminate if they’re going to challenge where I expected them to.
What it means
Rosslyn Park: Plenty of quality, but two very different performances in the last two weeks.
Camborne: An outstanding start for the newly promoted side.
They’ve already demonstrated that they can win away from home, and I suspect nobody is going to be taking them lightly now.
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TONBRIDGE JUDDIANS 53–52 CAMBRIDGE
Absolute madness!
I’m not sure there’s much else you can call this.
53–52.
One hundred and five points.
Tonbridge Juddians remain unbeaten.
Cambridge remain without a victory.
And yet I’m not sure Cambridge will come away from this feeling as badly as you might expect from a team that has just lost by one point.
Because scoring 52 points away from home is pretty impressive.
The problem, of course, is that they conceded 53.
Cambridge had already scored 33 against Moseley and 31 against Bury in their opening two games.
Now they’ve scored 52.
So there is absolutely no question about their ability to score points.
The problem is happening at the other end.
For TJs, however, this is another win.
And ultimately, that’s what counts.
They’ve now won three from three.
But they’ve also conceded:
26 against Sheffield, 38 against Scottish and 52 against Cambridge.
That’s 116 points conceded in three matches.
And yet they have fifteen points from their first three games.
It’s quite remarkable.
They’re finding ways to win.
What it means
Tonbridge Juddians: Three from three and still unbeaten. You simply can’t argue with the results, even if they are making life considerably more exciting for their supporters than perhaps they’d like!
Cambridge: Still searching for that first victory, but they are certainly not a side I’d want to face if their attack is firing.
They just need to find a way of conceding fewer than 50!
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SO WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT AFTER THREE WEEKS?
Well, probably that we haven’t learnt very much!
But there are certainly some trends beginning to emerge.
PLYMOUTH, SALE AND TJs — THE PERFECT THREE
All three remain unbeaten.
But they’re doing it in completely different ways.
Plymouth are combining big attacking numbers with a very strong defence.
Sale are simply destroying teams with their attacking output.
TJs are winning incredibly close games and somehow surviving defensive shootouts.
All three deserve huge credit.
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SALE LOOK VERY SERIOUS
Three wins.
161 points scored.
They’ve scored more than 50 points per game on average.
The biggest question now isn’t whether Sale are good enough to challenge.
It’s how long they can maintain this level of attacking production.
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PLYMOUTH LOOK JUST AS IMPRESSIVE
Three wins.
140 points scored.
Only 48? No — 48? Let’s check that carefully.
Their first three results were:
61–17
32–21
47–5
That’s 140 scored and 43 conceded.
That is an exceptional start.
And they’ve done it while dealing with the absence of Jenkins this week.
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TJs ARE THE GREAT SURVIVORS
Three wins. Three completely different matches. And somehow they’re still unbeaten.
Their first three results were 31–26 against Sheffield, 39–38 at London Scottish and 53–52 against Cambridge.
That’s 123 points scored and 116 conceded across the three matches.
The defence will clearly be something they’ll want to tighten up, but you can’t ignore a team that keeps finding a way to win.
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CAMBORNE ARE MAKING A BIG STATEMENT
This might be my favourite early-season story.
Newly promoted.
Beat Leeds away.
Lost to Plymouth.
Beat Rosslyn Park away.
That’s a very impressive start.
They’re already showing that they belong at this level.
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MOSELEY ARE MAKING ME LOOK SILLY
I had them 14th.
They’ve won two of three.
Enough said!
It’s far too early to completely rewrite my prediction, but I’m certainly not going to pretend I haven’t noticed.
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LEEDS HAVE ARRIVED
Two narrow defeats followed by 57–10.
That’s quite a response.
And perhaps the two opening defeats need to be viewed differently now.
They’ve clearly got the ability to score points.
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RAMS HAVE WORK TO DO
This is the one that really doesn’t fit my pre-season prediction.
I had them third.
They’ve got:
0 wins
1 draw
2 defeats
There is plenty of time to put that right, but they need to start winning soon.
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CAMBRIDGE ARE A STRANGE ONE
Three defeats.
But:
33 points against Moseley
31 against Bury
52 against TJs
That’s 116 points in their last two games.
They’re clearly capable of scoring.
They just aren’t keeping the opposition out.
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AND WHAT ABOUT MY PREDICTIONS?
Well…
4 out of 7.
I’ll take it!
I correctly predicted:
Birmingham Moseley Sale FC Plymouth Albion Tonbridge JuddiansAnd missed:
Leeds Tykes Bishop’s Stortford CamborneThe biggest surprise for me was Leeds beating Scottish so convincingly.
Camborne winning at Rosslyn Park was another one I didn’t see coming.
And I certainly didn’t expect Stortford to go to Rams and win.
But that’s National One.
Three weeks in and already several of my pre-season assumptions are being tested.
And that’s exactly what makes this league so enjoyable.
Plymouth, Sale and Tonbridge Juddians remain unbeaten.
But behind them, it is absolutely wide open.
And if the first three weeks are anything to go by…
we’ve got one hell of a season ahead of us.
